Energy Access Scenarios to 2030 for the Power Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa

In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%.Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa

IPCC Workshop on Describing Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change to Support Analysis of Risk and of Options

This report summarizes an IPCC workshop which was convened to discuss how to communicate areas of risk and uncertainty in the 4th IPCC Assessment Report

Summary for Policymakers IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III

A. Introduction 1. The Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) focuses on new literature on thescientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects ofmitigation of climate change, published since the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR) and the Special Reports on COB2B Capture and Storage (SRCCS)and on Safeguarding the Ozone Layer and the Global Climate System (SROC).The following summary is organised into six sections after thisintroduction: - Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends, - Mitigation in theshort and medium term, across different economic sectors (until 2030), -Mitigation in the long-term (beyond 2030), - Policies, measures andinstruments to mitigate climate change, - Sustainable development andclimate change mitigation, - Gaps in knowledge. References to thecorresponding chapter sections are indicated at each paragraph in squarebrackets. An explanation of terms, acronyms and chemical symbols used inthis SPM can be found in the glossary to the main report

World outlook for nuclear power

The Fukushima Daiichi accident of March 2011 has re-ignited the debate about the role of nuclear power in the future global energy mix. More than one and a half years after the accident, a somewhat clearer picture is emerging – different countries responded with different nuclear policies, e.g., one size does not fit all. While several countries confirmed or decided to phase-out the use of the technology or to cancel their plans of adding nuclear power to their future electricity generating mix, the majority of countries with operating nuclear power plants or plans to eventually start national nuclear power programmes continue with the implementation of their pre-Fukushima nuclear strategies albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Projections of future nuclear capacity expansion for the year 2030 show a likely shift of global nuclear generating capacities by about a decade but no significant retraction of national nuclear power programmes globally. Keywords: Fukushima Daiichi accident, Nuclear power projections, National nuclear policie

The Uncertainty of Future Commercial Shale Gas Availability

Numerous top-down resource estimates have indicated that shale deposits hold enormous volumes of methane globally. Until recently detailed delineations of shale gas resources and their production have occurred exclusively in North America. The driving forces and enabling conditions behind the rapid exploitation of shale gas resources in North America are assessed to determine if these are transferable to the rest of world. No two shale deposits are created equal and the mere existence of shale does not guarantee success of future gas production. A formation may hold too little oil or gas — or it may not be brittle enough for fracking to work effectively. The challenge is to find so-called ‘sweet spots’, i.e., plays with high flow rates, once stimulated. The amount of shale gas that can be commercially produced under current and future market conditions is determined by the quantity and thermal maturity of shale’s organic content, by regional technology cost, access to transmission pipelines and regional gas price levels. The shale gas rush in North America has caused a precipitous drop in natural gas wellhead prices - from some $11/GJ in 2008 to less than$3/GJ in 2012. A review of the economics of shale gas production indicates that (a) the resource appraisal process for conventional gas resources is unsuitable for unconventional gas resources; (b) field development requires continuous (on-the-go) investment in fracking to stimulate well pressure, and (c) depressed US gas prices currently fail to cover full finding and development costs. Unless well technology improves and completion cost declines rapidly, the maturation process of technically recoverable shale gas resources to proved reserves will be delayed. Time value of money effects undermine the commercial availability of shale gas, particularly in regions where ineffective permitting procedures and slow societal acceptance tend to put additional negative pressure on shale field development speed

Energy Resources and Conversion Technologies for the 21st Century

climate change, emission scenarios, energy resources, fossil fuels, nuclear power, renewables, energy conversion technologies, fuel cells,